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Autor Heim, John J. |
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TÃtulo : An Econometric Model of the US Economy : Structural Analysis in 56 Equations Tipo de documento: documento electrónico Autores: Heim, John J., Mención de edición: 1 ed. Editorial: [s.l.] : Springer Fecha de publicación: 2017 Número de páginas: XXX, 460 p. 14 ilustraciones ISBN/ISSN/DL: 978-3-319-50681-4 Nota general: Libro disponible en la plataforma SpringerLink. Descarga y lectura en formatos PDF, HTML y ePub. Descarga completa o por capítulos. Idioma : Inglés (eng) Palabras clave: EconometrÃa Macroeconómica EconomÃa regional EconomÃa espacial MacroeconomÃa y economÃa monetaria EconomÃa regional y espacial Clasificación: 330.015195 Resumen: Este libro explora la economÃa estadounidense de 1960 a 2010 utilizando un enfoque más keynesiano, el modelo de Cowles, que según el autor tiene ventajas sustanciales sobre los modelos de autorregresión vectorial (VAR) y de equilibrio general estocástico dinámico (DSGE) que se utilizan casi exclusivamente en la actualidad. Heim presenta un argumento sólido a favor del modelo de Cowles como respuesta a la pregunta metodológica apremiante y no resuelta de cómo modelar con precisión la macroeconomÃa para que los responsables de las polÃticas puedan utilizar estos modelos de manera confiable para ayudar en su toma de decisiones. Treinta y ocho ecuaciones de comportamiento, que describen determinantes de variables como el consumo, los impuestos y el gasto público, están conectadas por dieciocho identidades para construir un modelo integral de la economÃa real de Estados Unidos que luego Heim prueba en cuatro perÃodos de tiempo diferentes para garantizar que los resultados sean consistentes. . Esta demostración integral del valor de un modelo ignorado durante mucho tiempo proporciona evidencia abrumadora de que los modelos estructurales más keynesianos (Cowles) superan al VAR y al DSGE y, por lo tanto, deberÃan ser los modelos elegidos en futuros estudios macroeconómicos. . Nota de contenido: 1. Introduction to Part 1 (Production of the GDP) -- 2. Methodology -- 3. Literature Review -- 4. The Consumption Models -- 5. Models Indicating Determinants of Investment Spending and Borrowing -- 6. The Exports Demand Equation -- 7. Statistically Estimated Real GDP Determination Functions ("IS" Curves) -- 8. Real GDP Determination Functions ("IS" Curves) Aggregated from Estimates Obtained by Statistically Estimating the Subcomponent Functions Comprising the GDP -- 9. Determinants of the Prime Interest Rate: Taylor Rule Method -- 10. Determinants of the Prime Interest Rate: LM Curve Method -- 11. Determinants of Inflation: The Phillips Curve Model -- 12. Determinants of Unemployment -- 13. The Savings Functions -- 14. Determinants of Government Receipts -- 15. Edogeneity of Government Spending -- 16. Capacity of the Model to Explain Behavior of the Macroeconomy in the Years beyond the Period Used to Estimate the Model -- 17. Converting the Older Keynsian IS-LM Model to the More Modern AS-AD Interpretation of the Kenysian Model -- 18. Dynamics -- 19. Summary and Conclusions (Production Side of the NIPA Accounts) -- 20. Part II: Determinants of Factor Shares (Income Side of the NIPA Accounts). Tipo de medio : Computadora Summary : This book explores the US economy from 1960 to 2010 using a more Keynsian, Cowles model approach, which the author argues has substantial advantages over the vector autoregression (VAR) and dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models used almost exclusively today. Heim presents a robust argument in favor of the Cowles model as an answer to the pressing, unresolved methodological question of how to accurately model the macroeconomy so that policymakers can reliably use these models to assist their decision making. Thirty-eight behavioral equations, describing determinants of variables such as consumption, taxes, and government spending, are connected by eighteen identities to construct a comprehensive model of the real US economy that Heim then tests across four different time periods to ensure that results are consistent. This comprehensive demonstration of the value of a long-ignored model provides overwhelming evidence that the more Keynesian (Cowles) structural models outperform VAR and DSGE, and therefore should be the models of choice in future macroeconomic studies. . Enlace de acceso : https://link-springer-com.biblioproxy.umanizales.edu.co/referencework/10.1007/97 [...] An Econometric Model of the US Economy : Structural Analysis in 56 Equations [documento electrónico] / Heim, John J., . - 1 ed. . - [s.l.] : Springer, 2017 . - XXX, 460 p. 14 ilustraciones.
ISBN : 978-3-319-50681-4
Libro disponible en la plataforma SpringerLink. Descarga y lectura en formatos PDF, HTML y ePub. Descarga completa o por capítulos.
Idioma : Inglés (eng)
Palabras clave: EconometrÃa Macroeconómica EconomÃa regional EconomÃa espacial MacroeconomÃa y economÃa monetaria EconomÃa regional y espacial Clasificación: 330.015195 Resumen: Este libro explora la economÃa estadounidense de 1960 a 2010 utilizando un enfoque más keynesiano, el modelo de Cowles, que según el autor tiene ventajas sustanciales sobre los modelos de autorregresión vectorial (VAR) y de equilibrio general estocástico dinámico (DSGE) que se utilizan casi exclusivamente en la actualidad. Heim presenta un argumento sólido a favor del modelo de Cowles como respuesta a la pregunta metodológica apremiante y no resuelta de cómo modelar con precisión la macroeconomÃa para que los responsables de las polÃticas puedan utilizar estos modelos de manera confiable para ayudar en su toma de decisiones. Treinta y ocho ecuaciones de comportamiento, que describen determinantes de variables como el consumo, los impuestos y el gasto público, están conectadas por dieciocho identidades para construir un modelo integral de la economÃa real de Estados Unidos que luego Heim prueba en cuatro perÃodos de tiempo diferentes para garantizar que los resultados sean consistentes. . Esta demostración integral del valor de un modelo ignorado durante mucho tiempo proporciona evidencia abrumadora de que los modelos estructurales más keynesianos (Cowles) superan al VAR y al DSGE y, por lo tanto, deberÃan ser los modelos elegidos en futuros estudios macroeconómicos. . Nota de contenido: 1. Introduction to Part 1 (Production of the GDP) -- 2. Methodology -- 3. Literature Review -- 4. The Consumption Models -- 5. Models Indicating Determinants of Investment Spending and Borrowing -- 6. The Exports Demand Equation -- 7. Statistically Estimated Real GDP Determination Functions ("IS" Curves) -- 8. Real GDP Determination Functions ("IS" Curves) Aggregated from Estimates Obtained by Statistically Estimating the Subcomponent Functions Comprising the GDP -- 9. Determinants of the Prime Interest Rate: Taylor Rule Method -- 10. Determinants of the Prime Interest Rate: LM Curve Method -- 11. Determinants of Inflation: The Phillips Curve Model -- 12. Determinants of Unemployment -- 13. The Savings Functions -- 14. Determinants of Government Receipts -- 15. Edogeneity of Government Spending -- 16. Capacity of the Model to Explain Behavior of the Macroeconomy in the Years beyond the Period Used to Estimate the Model -- 17. Converting the Older Keynsian IS-LM Model to the More Modern AS-AD Interpretation of the Kenysian Model -- 18. Dynamics -- 19. Summary and Conclusions (Production Side of the NIPA Accounts) -- 20. Part II: Determinants of Factor Shares (Income Side of the NIPA Accounts). Tipo de medio : Computadora Summary : This book explores the US economy from 1960 to 2010 using a more Keynsian, Cowles model approach, which the author argues has substantial advantages over the vector autoregression (VAR) and dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models used almost exclusively today. Heim presents a robust argument in favor of the Cowles model as an answer to the pressing, unresolved methodological question of how to accurately model the macroeconomy so that policymakers can reliably use these models to assist their decision making. Thirty-eight behavioral equations, describing determinants of variables such as consumption, taxes, and government spending, are connected by eighteen identities to construct a comprehensive model of the real US economy that Heim then tests across four different time periods to ensure that results are consistent. This comprehensive demonstration of the value of a long-ignored model provides overwhelming evidence that the more Keynesian (Cowles) structural models outperform VAR and DSGE, and therefore should be the models of choice in future macroeconomic studies. . Enlace de acceso : https://link-springer-com.biblioproxy.umanizales.edu.co/referencework/10.1007/97 [...]
TÃtulo : Crowding Out Fiscal Stimulus : Testing the Effectiveness of US Government Stimulus Programs Tipo de documento: documento electrónico Autores: Heim, John J., Mención de edición: 1 ed. Editorial: [s.l.] : Springer Fecha de publicación: 2017 Número de páginas: XXI, 272 p. 5 ilustraciones en color. ISBN/ISSN/DL: 978-3-319-45967-7 Nota general: Libro disponible en la plataforma SpringerLink. Descarga y lectura en formatos PDF, HTML y ePub. Descarga completa o por capítulos. Idioma : Inglés (eng) Palabras clave: Finanzas Público Macroeconómica EconometrÃa PolÃtica económica Finanza pública MacroeconomÃa y economÃa monetaria EconomÃa cuantitativa Clasificación: 336 Economía (Finanzas públicas) Resumen: Este libro presenta evidencia abrumadora de que los programas de estÃmulo del gobierno estadounidense durante los últimos cincuenta años no han funcionado. Utilizando los mejores y más modernos modelos de pruebas econométricas, aplica 228 pruebas cientÃficas independientes para examinar los efectos de diferentes modelos de estÃmulo que, en teorÃa, deberÃan haber mostrado resultados positivos. Al probar todas las interpretaciones alternativas posibles, comenzando con un perÃodo y luego volviendo a probar en tres perÃodos adicionales, este estudio definitivo encuentra que incluso cuando se favorecen los modelos keynesianos pro estÃmulo, es más probable que la financiación pública a través de recortes de impuestos gubernamentales y programas de aumento del gasto impulse reducir -o "desplazar"- tanto gasto del sector privado como estimula en el sector público. Nota de contenido: 1. Introduction -- 2. Theory of Crowd Out -- 3. Literature Review -- 4. Methodology -- 5. Test Results: Consumer Spending and Borrowing Models (1 Variable Deficit) -- 6. Test Results: Investment Spending and Borrowing Models (1 Variable Deficit) -- 7. Test Results: Consumer Spending and Borrowing Models (2 Variable Deficit) -- 8. Test Results: Investment Spending and Borrowing Models (2 Variable Deficit) -- 9. Are Findings of 1 and 2 Variable Consumer and Investment Deficit Models Consistent? -- 10. Effects of Stimulus Programs on GDP, Net of Crowd Out Effects -- 11. Dynamic Effects -- 12. Alternatives to Financing Stimulus Programs with Domestic Borrowing -- 13. A Note on the Disposable Income Variable in the Consumption Models -- 14. Do Crowd Out Effects Differ in Recessions and Nonrecession Periods? -- 15. Does the Gale/Orszag Hypothesis Explain Tax and Spending Effects Better in Recession than Nonrecession Periods? -- 16. Summary of Findings and Conclusions. Tipo de medio : Computadora Summary : This book presents overwhelming evidence that US government stimulus programs over the past fifty years have not worked. Using the best and most modern econometric testing models, it applies 228 separate hard science tests to examine the effects of different stimulus models that should, in theory, have shown positive results. By testing every possible alternative interpretation, starting with one time period and then retesting in three additional time periods, this definitive study finds that even when favoring pro-stimulus Keynesian models, public financing through government tax cuts and spending increase programs is more likely to drive down - or "crowd out" - as much private sector spending as it stimulates in the public sector. Enlace de acceso : https://link-springer-com.biblioproxy.umanizales.edu.co/referencework/10.1007/97 [...] Crowding Out Fiscal Stimulus : Testing the Effectiveness of US Government Stimulus Programs [documento electrónico] / Heim, John J., . - 1 ed. . - [s.l.] : Springer, 2017 . - XXI, 272 p. 5 ilustraciones en color.
ISBN : 978-3-319-45967-7
Libro disponible en la plataforma SpringerLink. Descarga y lectura en formatos PDF, HTML y ePub. Descarga completa o por capítulos.
Idioma : Inglés (eng)
Palabras clave: Finanzas Público Macroeconómica EconometrÃa PolÃtica económica Finanza pública MacroeconomÃa y economÃa monetaria EconomÃa cuantitativa Clasificación: 336 Economía (Finanzas públicas) Resumen: Este libro presenta evidencia abrumadora de que los programas de estÃmulo del gobierno estadounidense durante los últimos cincuenta años no han funcionado. Utilizando los mejores y más modernos modelos de pruebas econométricas, aplica 228 pruebas cientÃficas independientes para examinar los efectos de diferentes modelos de estÃmulo que, en teorÃa, deberÃan haber mostrado resultados positivos. Al probar todas las interpretaciones alternativas posibles, comenzando con un perÃodo y luego volviendo a probar en tres perÃodos adicionales, este estudio definitivo encuentra que incluso cuando se favorecen los modelos keynesianos pro estÃmulo, es más probable que la financiación pública a través de recortes de impuestos gubernamentales y programas de aumento del gasto impulse reducir -o "desplazar"- tanto gasto del sector privado como estimula en el sector público. Nota de contenido: 1. Introduction -- 2. Theory of Crowd Out -- 3. Literature Review -- 4. Methodology -- 5. Test Results: Consumer Spending and Borrowing Models (1 Variable Deficit) -- 6. Test Results: Investment Spending and Borrowing Models (1 Variable Deficit) -- 7. Test Results: Consumer Spending and Borrowing Models (2 Variable Deficit) -- 8. Test Results: Investment Spending and Borrowing Models (2 Variable Deficit) -- 9. Are Findings of 1 and 2 Variable Consumer and Investment Deficit Models Consistent? -- 10. Effects of Stimulus Programs on GDP, Net of Crowd Out Effects -- 11. Dynamic Effects -- 12. Alternatives to Financing Stimulus Programs with Domestic Borrowing -- 13. A Note on the Disposable Income Variable in the Consumption Models -- 14. Do Crowd Out Effects Differ in Recessions and Nonrecession Periods? -- 15. Does the Gale/Orszag Hypothesis Explain Tax and Spending Effects Better in Recession than Nonrecession Periods? -- 16. Summary of Findings and Conclusions. Tipo de medio : Computadora Summary : This book presents overwhelming evidence that US government stimulus programs over the past fifty years have not worked. Using the best and most modern econometric testing models, it applies 228 separate hard science tests to examine the effects of different stimulus models that should, in theory, have shown positive results. By testing every possible alternative interpretation, starting with one time period and then retesting in three additional time periods, this definitive study finds that even when favoring pro-stimulus Keynesian models, public financing through government tax cuts and spending increase programs is more likely to drive down - or "crowd out" - as much private sector spending as it stimulates in the public sector. Enlace de acceso : https://link-springer-com.biblioproxy.umanizales.edu.co/referencework/10.1007/97 [...]
TÃtulo : Why Fiscal Stimulus Programs Fail, Volume 1 : The Limits of Accommodative Monetary Policy in Practice Tipo de documento: documento electrónico Autores: Heim, John J., Mención de edición: 1 ed. Editorial: [s.l.] : Springer Fecha de publicación: 2021 Número de páginas: XXXIII, 577 p. 34 ilustraciones ISBN/ISSN/DL: 978-3-030-65675-1 Nota general: Libro disponible en la plataforma SpringerLink. Descarga y lectura en formatos PDF, HTML y ePub. Descarga completa o por capítulos. Idioma : Inglés (eng) Palabras clave: Macroeconómica EconometrÃa Finanzas Público MacroeconomÃa y economÃa monetaria Finanza pública Clasificación: 339 Economía (Macroeconomía y temas relacionados) Resumen: Utilizando sofisticadas técnicas econométricas, Heim es capaz de lograr un doble resultado: demostrar que el enfoque keynesiano de la estabilización económica es teóricamente válido, pero que su aplicación práctica en el pasado ha resultado cuantitativamente problemática. Bien puede ser que esté justificado por las medidas sin precedentes aplicadas en las dos últimas crisis". -Paul Hohenberg, 2007 Presidente, Asociación de Historia Económica "Se ha pensado que la polÃtica macro keynesiana fracasó debido al desplazamiento... este libro muestra que la polÃtica macro keynesiana no fue el fracaso, fueron las polÃticas monetarias acomodaticias las que fracasaron;... Además, parece que el uso de bancos de inversión, en lugar de bancos comerciales y de ahorro y préstamo, obstruyó significativamente la eficacia de las polÃticas acomodaticias." -John Polimeni, profesor asociado de economÃa, Facultad de Farmacia de Albany. "Why Fiscal Stimulus Fails (Vol. 1) logra establecer la relación entre los déficits gubernamentales, el desplazamiento y la polÃtica monetaria. El tratado se beneficia aún más de los requisitos de Heim de que los modelos económicos sean replicables... la minuciosidad y claridad de la presentación de Heim hace que trabajo accesible para cualquiera."-Robert Jones, Instituto Politécnico Rensselaer Este libro ofrece una serie de pruebas estadÃsticas para determinar si el problema del "desplazamiento", conocido por obstaculizar la eficacia de los programas de estÃmulo económico keynesianos, puede superarse mediante programas monetarios. Concluye que hay programas que pueden hacer esto, especÃficamente la "polÃtica monetaria acomodaticia". No se utilizaron en gran medida antes del programa de Flexibilización Cuantitativa de 2008, lo que provocó el fracaso de muchos programas de estÃmulo fiscal sin que fuera culpa suya. El libro incluye pruebas estadÃsticas exhaustivas para probar este punto. También hay una sección de análisis de polÃticas en el libro. Examina cuán efectivamente han funcionado los programas antidesplazamiento de la Reserva Federal, en la medida en que se implementaron. Se encuentra evidencia estadÃstica de que utilizar bancos comerciales y de ahorros en lugar de bancos de inversión al implementar una polÃtica monetaria acomodaticia habrÃa mejorado notablemente su efectividad. Este volumen, junto con su volumen complementario Por qué fracasan los programas de estÃmulo fiscal, Volumen 2: Pruebas estadÃsticas que comparan la polÃtica monetaria con el crecimiento, proporciona 1.000 pruebas estadÃsticas distintas sobre la economÃa estadounidense para probar estas afirmaciones. Nota de contenido: Part-1: Introductory Chapter -- chapter 1: Introduction -- Chapter 2: Literature Review -- Chapter 3: Methodology.-Part-2: Theory of crowd out and accommodative monetary policy -- Chapter 4: Theory of Crowd Out and Accommodative Monetary Policy -- chapter 5: A Simplified Balance Sheet View of How Open Market Operations Intended to Stimulate the Economy, When Dominated by Primary Dealers, Actually Stimulate Securities Markets, not the Real Economy -- Chapter 6: A Money Multiplier Approach to How Open Market Operations Stimulate Securities Markets and the Real Economy -- Part-3: The effectiveness of accommodating monetary policy mechanics -- chapter 7: The Role of Primary Dealers in Federal Reserve Efforts to Change the Money Supply -- chapter 8: The Failure of Accommodative Monetary Policy before Quantitative Easing (QE) and Its Success During QE; The "Pushing on a String Problem -- chapter 9:The Failure of U.S. Loanable Funds to Grow as Much as Federal Reserve Securities Purchases During QE: The Role of Foreign Banks -- Part-4: Increases in m1 – effects on stock and bond markets and the GDP -- Chapter 10: Effect of FR Purchases of Government Securities on M1 -- Chapter 11: Effect of Increases in Loanable funds or M1 on the GDP -- Chapter 12: Effect of FR Security Purchases and M1 on Stock, Bond and Mortgage Markets -- Part-5: Does crowd out really occur? -- Chapter 13: Does Crowd Out Really Occur? Initial Empirical Evidence – One Time Period -- Chapter 14: Does Crowd Out Really Occur? Empirical Evidence – Replication in Many Time Periods -- Part-6: Increases in total loanable funds (s+fb) – do they reduce crowd out? -- Chapter 15: Initial Tests of Whether Crowd out Effects Can be Offset by Increases in Loanable Funds -- Chapter 16: Which Models Best Explain How Changes in Loanable Funds Offset Crowd Out? -- Chapter 17: Do Loanable Funds Modify the Crowd Out Effects of the One-Variable Deficit (T-G) -- Chapter 18: Do Loanable Funds Modify the Crowd Out Effects of the Two-Variable Deficit (T), (G)? -- Chapter 19: Does M1 or Total Loanable Funds Better Measure Offset Effects to Crowd Out? -- Part-7: Determining M1 effects on crowd out -- Chapter 20: Does M1 or Total Loanable Funds More Accurately Define the Extent to Which Crowd Out Can be Modified? -- Part-8: Non-black box models: structural mechanisms through which loanable funds affects consumption and investment -- Chapter 21: Do Consumer Borrowing, Inflation and the Prime Interest Rate Increase When M1, or M2 are increased? -- Chapter 22: Effects on Consumer and Business Borrowing of Loanable Funds and M1 -- Chapter 23: Effects on Inflation of Loanable Funds and M1 -- Chapter 24: Effects on the Prime Interest Rate in Keynesian Models of Loanable Funds and M1 -- Part-9: Summary chapters -- Chapter 25: Summary of Introductory. Literature Review, and Methodology Chapters -- Chapter 26: Summary of Crowd Out and Accommodative Monetary Policy Theory Chapters -- Chapter 27: Summary of the Science Underlying the Conclusion that "Crowd Out" is a Serious Problem and that Accommodative Monetary Policy Can Offset It -- Chapter 28: Summary Of Engineering Equations -- Chapter 29: Acronyms Defined -- Part-10: Overall conclusions -- Chapter 30: Overall Conclusions. . Tipo de medio : Computadora Summary : "Using sophisticated econometric techniques, Heim is able to achieve a dual result: to show that the Keynesian approach to economic stabilization is theoretically valid; but that its practical application in the past has proved quantitatively problematic. It may well be that he is vindicated by the unprecedented measures applied in the last two downturns." -Paul Hohenberg, 2007 President, Economic History Association "Keynesian macro policy has been thought to fail because of crowding out… this book shows that Keynesian macro policy was not the failure, it was the accommodating monetary policies that failed;…Furthermore, it appears that the use of investment banks, rather than commercial and savings and loans banks, significantly obstructed the effectiveness of the accommodative policies." -John Polimeni, Associate Professor of Economics, Albany College of Pharmacy. "Why Fiscal Stimulus Fails (Vol. 1) succeeds in its quest to establish therelationship between government deficits, crowding out, and monetary policy. The treatise benefits further from Heim's requirements that economic models be replicable… the thoroughness and clarity of Heim's presentation makes the work accessible to anyone."-Robert Jones, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute This book offers a series of statistical tests to determine if the "crowd out" problem, known to hinder the effectiveness of Keynesian economic stimulus programs, can be overcome by monetary programs. It concludes there are programs that can do this, specifically "accommodative monetary policy." They were not used to any great extent prior to the Quantitative Easing program in 2008, causing the failure of many fiscal stimulus programs through no fault of their own. The book includes exhaustive statistical tests to prove this point. There is also a policy analysis section of the book. It examines how effectively the Federal Reserve's anti-crowd out programs have actually worked, to the extent they were undertaken at all. It finds statistical evidence that using commercial and savings banks instead of investment banks when implementing accommodating monetary policy would have markedly improved their effectiveness. This volume, with its companion volume Why Fiscal Stimulus Programs Fail, Volume 2: Statistical Tests Comparing Monetary Policy to Growth, provides 1000 separate statistical tests on the US economy to prove these assertions. Enlace de acceso : https://link-springer-com.biblioproxy.umanizales.edu.co/referencework/10.1007/97 [...] Why Fiscal Stimulus Programs Fail, Volume 1 : The Limits of Accommodative Monetary Policy in Practice [documento electrónico] / Heim, John J., . - 1 ed. . - [s.l.] : Springer, 2021 . - XXXIII, 577 p. 34 ilustraciones.
ISBN : 978-3-030-65675-1
Libro disponible en la plataforma SpringerLink. Descarga y lectura en formatos PDF, HTML y ePub. Descarga completa o por capítulos.
Idioma : Inglés (eng)
Palabras clave: Macroeconómica EconometrÃa Finanzas Público MacroeconomÃa y economÃa monetaria Finanza pública Clasificación: 339 Economía (Macroeconomía y temas relacionados) Resumen: Utilizando sofisticadas técnicas econométricas, Heim es capaz de lograr un doble resultado: demostrar que el enfoque keynesiano de la estabilización económica es teóricamente válido, pero que su aplicación práctica en el pasado ha resultado cuantitativamente problemática. Bien puede ser que esté justificado por las medidas sin precedentes aplicadas en las dos últimas crisis". -Paul Hohenberg, 2007 Presidente, Asociación de Historia Económica "Se ha pensado que la polÃtica macro keynesiana fracasó debido al desplazamiento... este libro muestra que la polÃtica macro keynesiana no fue el fracaso, fueron las polÃticas monetarias acomodaticias las que fracasaron;... Además, parece que el uso de bancos de inversión, en lugar de bancos comerciales y de ahorro y préstamo, obstruyó significativamente la eficacia de las polÃticas acomodaticias." -John Polimeni, profesor asociado de economÃa, Facultad de Farmacia de Albany. "Why Fiscal Stimulus Fails (Vol. 1) logra establecer la relación entre los déficits gubernamentales, el desplazamiento y la polÃtica monetaria. El tratado se beneficia aún más de los requisitos de Heim de que los modelos económicos sean replicables... la minuciosidad y claridad de la presentación de Heim hace que trabajo accesible para cualquiera."-Robert Jones, Instituto Politécnico Rensselaer Este libro ofrece una serie de pruebas estadÃsticas para determinar si el problema del "desplazamiento", conocido por obstaculizar la eficacia de los programas de estÃmulo económico keynesianos, puede superarse mediante programas monetarios. Concluye que hay programas que pueden hacer esto, especÃficamente la "polÃtica monetaria acomodaticia". No se utilizaron en gran medida antes del programa de Flexibilización Cuantitativa de 2008, lo que provocó el fracaso de muchos programas de estÃmulo fiscal sin que fuera culpa suya. El libro incluye pruebas estadÃsticas exhaustivas para probar este punto. También hay una sección de análisis de polÃticas en el libro. Examina cuán efectivamente han funcionado los programas antidesplazamiento de la Reserva Federal, en la medida en que se implementaron. Se encuentra evidencia estadÃstica de que utilizar bancos comerciales y de ahorros en lugar de bancos de inversión al implementar una polÃtica monetaria acomodaticia habrÃa mejorado notablemente su efectividad. Este volumen, junto con su volumen complementario Por qué fracasan los programas de estÃmulo fiscal, Volumen 2: Pruebas estadÃsticas que comparan la polÃtica monetaria con el crecimiento, proporciona 1.000 pruebas estadÃsticas distintas sobre la economÃa estadounidense para probar estas afirmaciones. Nota de contenido: Part-1: Introductory Chapter -- chapter 1: Introduction -- Chapter 2: Literature Review -- Chapter 3: Methodology.-Part-2: Theory of crowd out and accommodative monetary policy -- Chapter 4: Theory of Crowd Out and Accommodative Monetary Policy -- chapter 5: A Simplified Balance Sheet View of How Open Market Operations Intended to Stimulate the Economy, When Dominated by Primary Dealers, Actually Stimulate Securities Markets, not the Real Economy -- Chapter 6: A Money Multiplier Approach to How Open Market Operations Stimulate Securities Markets and the Real Economy -- Part-3: The effectiveness of accommodating monetary policy mechanics -- chapter 7: The Role of Primary Dealers in Federal Reserve Efforts to Change the Money Supply -- chapter 8: The Failure of Accommodative Monetary Policy before Quantitative Easing (QE) and Its Success During QE; The "Pushing on a String Problem -- chapter 9:The Failure of U.S. Loanable Funds to Grow as Much as Federal Reserve Securities Purchases During QE: The Role of Foreign Banks -- Part-4: Increases in m1 – effects on stock and bond markets and the GDP -- Chapter 10: Effect of FR Purchases of Government Securities on M1 -- Chapter 11: Effect of Increases in Loanable funds or M1 on the GDP -- Chapter 12: Effect of FR Security Purchases and M1 on Stock, Bond and Mortgage Markets -- Part-5: Does crowd out really occur? -- Chapter 13: Does Crowd Out Really Occur? Initial Empirical Evidence – One Time Period -- Chapter 14: Does Crowd Out Really Occur? Empirical Evidence – Replication in Many Time Periods -- Part-6: Increases in total loanable funds (s+fb) – do they reduce crowd out? -- Chapter 15: Initial Tests of Whether Crowd out Effects Can be Offset by Increases in Loanable Funds -- Chapter 16: Which Models Best Explain How Changes in Loanable Funds Offset Crowd Out? -- Chapter 17: Do Loanable Funds Modify the Crowd Out Effects of the One-Variable Deficit (T-G) -- Chapter 18: Do Loanable Funds Modify the Crowd Out Effects of the Two-Variable Deficit (T), (G)? -- Chapter 19: Does M1 or Total Loanable Funds Better Measure Offset Effects to Crowd Out? -- Part-7: Determining M1 effects on crowd out -- Chapter 20: Does M1 or Total Loanable Funds More Accurately Define the Extent to Which Crowd Out Can be Modified? -- Part-8: Non-black box models: structural mechanisms through which loanable funds affects consumption and investment -- Chapter 21: Do Consumer Borrowing, Inflation and the Prime Interest Rate Increase When M1, or M2 are increased? -- Chapter 22: Effects on Consumer and Business Borrowing of Loanable Funds and M1 -- Chapter 23: Effects on Inflation of Loanable Funds and M1 -- Chapter 24: Effects on the Prime Interest Rate in Keynesian Models of Loanable Funds and M1 -- Part-9: Summary chapters -- Chapter 25: Summary of Introductory. Literature Review, and Methodology Chapters -- Chapter 26: Summary of Crowd Out and Accommodative Monetary Policy Theory Chapters -- Chapter 27: Summary of the Science Underlying the Conclusion that "Crowd Out" is a Serious Problem and that Accommodative Monetary Policy Can Offset It -- Chapter 28: Summary Of Engineering Equations -- Chapter 29: Acronyms Defined -- Part-10: Overall conclusions -- Chapter 30: Overall Conclusions. . Tipo de medio : Computadora Summary : "Using sophisticated econometric techniques, Heim is able to achieve a dual result: to show that the Keynesian approach to economic stabilization is theoretically valid; but that its practical application in the past has proved quantitatively problematic. It may well be that he is vindicated by the unprecedented measures applied in the last two downturns." -Paul Hohenberg, 2007 President, Economic History Association "Keynesian macro policy has been thought to fail because of crowding out… this book shows that Keynesian macro policy was not the failure, it was the accommodating monetary policies that failed;…Furthermore, it appears that the use of investment banks, rather than commercial and savings and loans banks, significantly obstructed the effectiveness of the accommodative policies." -John Polimeni, Associate Professor of Economics, Albany College of Pharmacy. "Why Fiscal Stimulus Fails (Vol. 1) succeeds in its quest to establish therelationship between government deficits, crowding out, and monetary policy. The treatise benefits further from Heim's requirements that economic models be replicable… the thoroughness and clarity of Heim's presentation makes the work accessible to anyone."-Robert Jones, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute This book offers a series of statistical tests to determine if the "crowd out" problem, known to hinder the effectiveness of Keynesian economic stimulus programs, can be overcome by monetary programs. It concludes there are programs that can do this, specifically "accommodative monetary policy." They were not used to any great extent prior to the Quantitative Easing program in 2008, causing the failure of many fiscal stimulus programs through no fault of their own. The book includes exhaustive statistical tests to prove this point. There is also a policy analysis section of the book. It examines how effectively the Federal Reserve's anti-crowd out programs have actually worked, to the extent they were undertaken at all. It finds statistical evidence that using commercial and savings banks instead of investment banks when implementing accommodating monetary policy would have markedly improved their effectiveness. This volume, with its companion volume Why Fiscal Stimulus Programs Fail, Volume 2: Statistical Tests Comparing Monetary Policy to Growth, provides 1000 separate statistical tests on the US economy to prove these assertions. Enlace de acceso : https://link-springer-com.biblioproxy.umanizales.edu.co/referencework/10.1007/97 [...]
TÃtulo : Why Fiscal Stimulus Programs Fail, Volume 2 : Statistical Tests Comparing Monetary Policy to Growth Effects Tipo de documento: documento electrónico Autores: Heim, John J., Mención de edición: 1 ed. Editorial: [s.l.] : Springer Fecha de publicación: 2021 Número de páginas: XXXIV, 611 p. 39 ilustraciones, 2 ilustraciones en color. ISBN/ISSN/DL: 978-3-030-64727-8 Nota general: Libro disponible en la plataforma SpringerLink. Descarga y lectura en formatos PDF, HTML y ePub. Descarga completa o por capítulos. Idioma : Inglés (eng) Palabras clave: Macroeconómica EconometrÃa Finanzas Público PolÃtica económica MacroeconomÃa y economÃa monetaria Finanza pública Clasificación: 339 Economía (Macroeconomía y temas relacionados) Resumen: Se ha pensado que la polÃtica macro keynesiana fracasó debido al desplazamiento. Para compensar... la Reserva Federal desarrolló polÃticas monetarias acomodaticias... este libro muestra que la polÃtica macro keynesiana no fue el fracaso, fueron las polÃticas monetarias acomodaticias las que fracasaron; fueron no es lo suficientemente grande como para superar... el desplazamiento". - John Polimeni, Albany College of Pharmacy, Albany, NY, EE. UU. Este libro prueba exhaustiva y cientÃficamente la afirmación de que una polÃtica monetaria acomodaticia puede eliminar el problema del "desplazamiento", permitiendo que los programas de estÃmulo fiscal (como recortes de impuestos o aumento del gasto público) estimular la economÃa como se esperaba. El libro pretende ser la prueba cientÃfica a mayor escala jamás realizada sobre este tema. Incluye alrededor de 800 pruebas estadÃsticas separadas sobre la economÃa estadounidense que analizan diferentes partes o todo el perÃodo 1960-2010. Estas pruebas se centran en si una polÃtica monetaria acomodaticia, que aumenta el conjunto de recursos prestables, puede compensar el problema de desplazamiento. El libro, que emplea los mejores métodos cientÃficos disponibles para los economistas, concluye que podrÃa haberlo hecho, pero hasta el programa de flexibilización cuantitativa, los esfuerzos de la Reserva Federal para acomodar los programas de estÃmulo fiscal no fueron lo suficientemente grandes como para compensar más del 23% al 44% de la multitud de un año. problema. Esto proporciona la parte cientÃfica de la respuesta de por qué la polÃtica monetaria acomodaticia no tuvo cabida: se intentó muy poco. El libro también prueba si otros cambios en los fondos prestables, que ocurren debido a cambios naturales en la economÃa o en la tasa de ahorro, también pueden compensar el desplazamiento, y concluye que asà es. Su volumen complementario Por qué fracasan los programas de estÃmulo fiscal, Volumen 1: Los lÃmites de la polÃtica monetaria acomodaticia en la práctica explora las implicaciones polÃticas de estos resultados. John J. Heim es profesor visitante en la Universidad de Albany-SUNY y profesor clÃnico jubilado de economÃa en el Instituto Politécnico Rensselaer, ambos en Nueva York, EE. UU. Nota de contenido: Chapter. 1 Introduction -- Chapter 2. Literature Review -- Chapter 3. Methodology -- Chapter 4. Theory of Crowd Out and Accommodative Monetary Policy -- Chapter 5. The Role of Primary Dealers, Investment Banks and Foreign Banks in Federal Reserve Efforts -- Chapter 6. Does Crowd Out Really Occur? Initial Empirical Evidence – One Time Period -- Chapter 7. Does Crowd Out Really Occur? Empirical Evidence – Replication in Many Time Periods -- Chapter 8. Initial Tests of Whether Crowd out Effects Can be Offset by Increases in Loanable Funds -- Chapter 9. Which Models Best Explain How Changes in Loanable Funds Offset Crowd Out? -- Chapter 10. Do Loanable Funds Modify the Crowd Out Effects of the One-Variable Deficit (T-G) -- Chapter 11. Do Loanable Funds Modify the Crowd Out Effects of the Two-Variable Deficit (T), (G)? -- Chapter 12. Does M1 or Total Loanable Funds Better Define the Extent to Which Crowd Out Can be Modified? -- Chapter 13. Alternate Ways of Modeling How Deficit Variables Modified by Accommodative Monetary Policy Reduce Crowd Out (Bernanke, Mankiw definitions Of Accommodative Monetary Policy) -- Chapter 14. Does Modification of the Single Variable Deficit (T-G) by FR Purchases Better Measure Crowd Out, Controlling for Endogenous Loanable Funds Growth? -- Chapter 15. Does Modification of the Two Variable Deficit (T), (G) by FR Purchases Better Measure Crowd Out, Controlling for Endogenous Loanable Funds Growth? -- Chapter 16. Do FR Purchases, Used as Deficit Modifiers, Reduce Crowd Out, Controlling for the Level of Private Saving and Foreign Borrowing -- Chapter 17. Level of Private Saving and Foreign Borrowing for Private Savings? -- Chapter 18. Do FR Purchases Reduce Crowd Out Effects, Controlling for Other Types of Loanable Funds? -- Chapter 19. Effects of Accommodative Monetary Policy on Crowd Out Before and After Quantitative Easing ( Dues "Pushing on a String" Occur?), etc. Tipo de medio : Computadora Summary : "Keynesian macro policy has been thought to fail because of crowding out. To compensate … accommodating monetary policies were developed by the Federal Reserve … this book shows that Keynesian macro policy was not the failure, it was the accommodating monetary policies that failed; they were not large enough to overcome … crowding out." - John Polimeni, Albany College of Pharmacy, Albany, NY, USA This book comprehensively and scientifically tests the assertion that accommodative monetary policy can eliminate the "crowd out" problem, allowing fiscal stimulus programs (such as tax cuts or increased government spending) to stimulate the economy as intended. The book is intended to be the largest scale scientific test ever performed on this topic. It includes about 800 separate statistical tests on the U.S. economy testing different parts or all of the period 1960 – 2010. These tests focus on whether accommodative monetary policy, which increases the pool of loanable resources, can offset the crowd out problem. The book, employing the best scientific methods available to economists, concludes it could have, but until the quantitative easing program, Federal Reserve efforts to accommodate fiscal stimulus programs were not large enough to offset more than 23% to 44% of any one year's crowd out problem. That provides the science part of the answer as to why accommodative monetary policy didn't accommodate: too little of it was tried. The book also tests whether other changes in loanable funds, occurring because of natural changes in the economy or the savings rate can also offset crowd out, and concludes it can. Its companion volume Why Fiscal Stimulus Programs Fail, Volume 1: The Limits of Accommodative Monetary Policy in Practice explores the policy implications of these results. John J. Heim is Visiting Professor at University of Albany-SUNY, and retired Clinical Professor of Economics at Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, both in New York, USA. Enlace de acceso : https://link-springer-com.biblioproxy.umanizales.edu.co/referencework/10.1007/97 [...] Why Fiscal Stimulus Programs Fail, Volume 2 : Statistical Tests Comparing Monetary Policy to Growth Effects [documento electrónico] / Heim, John J., . - 1 ed. . - [s.l.] : Springer, 2021 . - XXXIV, 611 p. 39 ilustraciones, 2 ilustraciones en color.
ISBN : 978-3-030-64727-8
Libro disponible en la plataforma SpringerLink. Descarga y lectura en formatos PDF, HTML y ePub. Descarga completa o por capítulos.
Idioma : Inglés (eng)
Palabras clave: Macroeconómica EconometrÃa Finanzas Público PolÃtica económica MacroeconomÃa y economÃa monetaria Finanza pública Clasificación: 339 Economía (Macroeconomía y temas relacionados) Resumen: Se ha pensado que la polÃtica macro keynesiana fracasó debido al desplazamiento. Para compensar... la Reserva Federal desarrolló polÃticas monetarias acomodaticias... este libro muestra que la polÃtica macro keynesiana no fue el fracaso, fueron las polÃticas monetarias acomodaticias las que fracasaron; fueron no es lo suficientemente grande como para superar... el desplazamiento". - John Polimeni, Albany College of Pharmacy, Albany, NY, EE. UU. Este libro prueba exhaustiva y cientÃficamente la afirmación de que una polÃtica monetaria acomodaticia puede eliminar el problema del "desplazamiento", permitiendo que los programas de estÃmulo fiscal (como recortes de impuestos o aumento del gasto público) estimular la economÃa como se esperaba. El libro pretende ser la prueba cientÃfica a mayor escala jamás realizada sobre este tema. Incluye alrededor de 800 pruebas estadÃsticas separadas sobre la economÃa estadounidense que analizan diferentes partes o todo el perÃodo 1960-2010. Estas pruebas se centran en si una polÃtica monetaria acomodaticia, que aumenta el conjunto de recursos prestables, puede compensar el problema de desplazamiento. El libro, que emplea los mejores métodos cientÃficos disponibles para los economistas, concluye que podrÃa haberlo hecho, pero hasta el programa de flexibilización cuantitativa, los esfuerzos de la Reserva Federal para acomodar los programas de estÃmulo fiscal no fueron lo suficientemente grandes como para compensar más del 23% al 44% de la multitud de un año. problema. Esto proporciona la parte cientÃfica de la respuesta de por qué la polÃtica monetaria acomodaticia no tuvo cabida: se intentó muy poco. El libro también prueba si otros cambios en los fondos prestables, que ocurren debido a cambios naturales en la economÃa o en la tasa de ahorro, también pueden compensar el desplazamiento, y concluye que asà es. Su volumen complementario Por qué fracasan los programas de estÃmulo fiscal, Volumen 1: Los lÃmites de la polÃtica monetaria acomodaticia en la práctica explora las implicaciones polÃticas de estos resultados. John J. Heim es profesor visitante en la Universidad de Albany-SUNY y profesor clÃnico jubilado de economÃa en el Instituto Politécnico Rensselaer, ambos en Nueva York, EE. UU. Nota de contenido: Chapter. 1 Introduction -- Chapter 2. Literature Review -- Chapter 3. Methodology -- Chapter 4. Theory of Crowd Out and Accommodative Monetary Policy -- Chapter 5. The Role of Primary Dealers, Investment Banks and Foreign Banks in Federal Reserve Efforts -- Chapter 6. Does Crowd Out Really Occur? Initial Empirical Evidence – One Time Period -- Chapter 7. Does Crowd Out Really Occur? Empirical Evidence – Replication in Many Time Periods -- Chapter 8. Initial Tests of Whether Crowd out Effects Can be Offset by Increases in Loanable Funds -- Chapter 9. Which Models Best Explain How Changes in Loanable Funds Offset Crowd Out? -- Chapter 10. Do Loanable Funds Modify the Crowd Out Effects of the One-Variable Deficit (T-G) -- Chapter 11. Do Loanable Funds Modify the Crowd Out Effects of the Two-Variable Deficit (T), (G)? -- Chapter 12. Does M1 or Total Loanable Funds Better Define the Extent to Which Crowd Out Can be Modified? -- Chapter 13. Alternate Ways of Modeling How Deficit Variables Modified by Accommodative Monetary Policy Reduce Crowd Out (Bernanke, Mankiw definitions Of Accommodative Monetary Policy) -- Chapter 14. Does Modification of the Single Variable Deficit (T-G) by FR Purchases Better Measure Crowd Out, Controlling for Endogenous Loanable Funds Growth? -- Chapter 15. Does Modification of the Two Variable Deficit (T), (G) by FR Purchases Better Measure Crowd Out, Controlling for Endogenous Loanable Funds Growth? -- Chapter 16. Do FR Purchases, Used as Deficit Modifiers, Reduce Crowd Out, Controlling for the Level of Private Saving and Foreign Borrowing -- Chapter 17. Level of Private Saving and Foreign Borrowing for Private Savings? -- Chapter 18. Do FR Purchases Reduce Crowd Out Effects, Controlling for Other Types of Loanable Funds? -- Chapter 19. Effects of Accommodative Monetary Policy on Crowd Out Before and After Quantitative Easing ( Dues "Pushing on a String" Occur?), etc. Tipo de medio : Computadora Summary : "Keynesian macro policy has been thought to fail because of crowding out. To compensate … accommodating monetary policies were developed by the Federal Reserve … this book shows that Keynesian macro policy was not the failure, it was the accommodating monetary policies that failed; they were not large enough to overcome … crowding out." - John Polimeni, Albany College of Pharmacy, Albany, NY, USA This book comprehensively and scientifically tests the assertion that accommodative monetary policy can eliminate the "crowd out" problem, allowing fiscal stimulus programs (such as tax cuts or increased government spending) to stimulate the economy as intended. The book is intended to be the largest scale scientific test ever performed on this topic. It includes about 800 separate statistical tests on the U.S. economy testing different parts or all of the period 1960 – 2010. These tests focus on whether accommodative monetary policy, which increases the pool of loanable resources, can offset the crowd out problem. The book, employing the best scientific methods available to economists, concludes it could have, but until the quantitative easing program, Federal Reserve efforts to accommodate fiscal stimulus programs were not large enough to offset more than 23% to 44% of any one year's crowd out problem. That provides the science part of the answer as to why accommodative monetary policy didn't accommodate: too little of it was tried. The book also tests whether other changes in loanable funds, occurring because of natural changes in the economy or the savings rate can also offset crowd out, and concludes it can. Its companion volume Why Fiscal Stimulus Programs Fail, Volume 1: The Limits of Accommodative Monetary Policy in Practice explores the policy implications of these results. John J. Heim is Visiting Professor at University of Albany-SUNY, and retired Clinical Professor of Economics at Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, both in New York, USA. Enlace de acceso : https://link-springer-com.biblioproxy.umanizales.edu.co/referencework/10.1007/97 [...]
